Friday, May 06, 2005

The Nation Decides

And the shock news is...all three parties have won.

Surely, even with the shennanigans of the fradulent postal vote, this is impossible.
Apparently not - the headlines on BBC News read : Blair wins historic third term, Howard salutes a Tory recovery, Lib Dem success hails "new era".

So who won and who lost ?

Labour

Whatever last night's election was, a resounding endorsement of Tony Blair it was not; having been expected by most analysts to get a three figure majority he will have to scrape by with an advantage of between 60 and 70 MPs...while this number seems a lot, remember the difficulty he has had pushing through controversial "new" labour initiatives such as foundation hospitals and tuition fees - in the next Parliament he's going to have to listen to his backbenchers a lot more and generally try not to piss off the old labour majority in his party. Given that he seems to bear heavy responsibility, Gordon is going to be hammering on the door and the chances of Blair serving out a full term seem negligable.

The success of a couple of others at the expense of Labour in its heartlands also is worth remembering : the success of Peter Law (a popular local candidate who was shafted by the imposition of an "all wimmin" shortlist) and "Gorgeous George" (who is in fact, anything but) of the Sir-I-Salute-Your-Indefatigability Party are also a slap on the Blairite face as well as providing a sauluatory lesson in the dangers of not listening to the concerns of local people - given that Galloway dedicated his victory to "the people of Iraq" and the fact that he only look part in a tiny proportion of Parliamentary debates in the last session does not bode well for the people of Bethnal Green and Bow.

Lib Dems

When all said and done, this was a crap result for them : they are never likely to have such a "perfect storm" again. Indeed what their results show us that, while their left of centre approach has won them the Iraq-protest vote in the Labour heartlands (Manchester, Leeds, my own dear Wood Green), it has cost them support in Lib Dem-Tory marginals in the south and west. When the labour protesters go home at the next election, Charles Kennedy could well be left holding the baby (an appropriate metaphor) for a dismal collapse on both fronts.

The Tories

In fairness they did better than I expected (or indeed hoped), gaining around 40 seats mostly in London and the south-east...however, they still have a hell of a long way to go if they are to form a government any time soon. Good news for them is the results are good enough to ensure Dracula sticks around for another couple of years until a more sutiable candidate can be found (watch the new member for Windsor) - Howard was never going to make a Prime Minister...let's be honest here.

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